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POWER: French DA Flips to Discount to France, Spread Could Narrow for 22 Feb

POWER
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France's day ahead flipped to a discount to Germany, as higher wind load factors and lower demand in France offset the impact of reduced nuclear availability. However, the FR-DE spread may narrow for 22 Feb delivery, with French wind expected to decline to levels like Germany’s, while demand in both regions is also set to fall to comparable levels.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €90.80/MWh from €94.95/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €63.90/MWh from €99.49/MWh on the previous day.
  • Germany was at a €26.90/MWh premium from a €4.54/MWh discount in the previous session.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to edge down to 20.78GW during base load on Friday, down from 21.88GW on Thursday according to SpotRenewables.
  • Wind output in Germany will then be at 22.58GW, or 35% load factor on 22 February (Sat) – which could drop power prices coupled with lower demand.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to fall to 61.02GW on Friday from 63.64GW on Thursday amid mean temperatures in Dusseldorf forecast to rise to 11.4C on Friday, up from 6.1C on Thursday and above the seasonal average of 4.5C, according to Bloomberg.
  • German power demand will then fall to 52.75GW on 22 February.
  • Residual load in Germany is forecast to be broadly stable at 32.73GWh/h on Friday, from 32.42GWh/h on Thursday according to Reuters.
  • In contrast, wind output in France is forecast to rise to 11.18GW during base-load hours on Friday, up from 7.61GW on Thursday according to SpotRenewables.
  • Wind will then be at a 32% load factor, or 7.63GW on 22 February – which could place downward pressure on costs coupled with lower demand.
  • Power demand in France is forecast to decline to 58.25GW on Friday, down from 60.73GW on Thursday as mean temperatures in Paris are forecast to rise to 12.5C on Friday from 9.8C on Thursday and above the seasonal normal of 5.7C, according to Bloomberg.
  • Demand will then drop to 53.39GW the next day.
  • Nuclear availability in France declined to 77% of capacity as of Thursday morning, down from 80% on Wednesday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg
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France's day ahead flipped to a discount to Germany, as higher wind load factors and lower demand in France offset the impact of reduced nuclear availability. However, the FR-DE spread may narrow for 22 Feb delivery, with French wind expected to decline to levels like Germany’s, while demand in both regions is also set to fall to comparable levels.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €90.80/MWh from €94.95/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €63.90/MWh from €99.49/MWh on the previous day.
  • Germany was at a €26.90/MWh premium from a €4.54/MWh discount in the previous session.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to edge down to 20.78GW during base load on Friday, down from 21.88GW on Thursday according to SpotRenewables.
  • Wind output in Germany will then be at 22.58GW, or 35% load factor on 22 February (Sat) – which could drop power prices coupled with lower demand.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to fall to 61.02GW on Friday from 63.64GW on Thursday amid mean temperatures in Dusseldorf forecast to rise to 11.4C on Friday, up from 6.1C on Thursday and above the seasonal average of 4.5C, according to Bloomberg.
  • German power demand will then fall to 52.75GW on 22 February.
  • Residual load in Germany is forecast to be broadly stable at 32.73GWh/h on Friday, from 32.42GWh/h on Thursday according to Reuters.
  • In contrast, wind output in France is forecast to rise to 11.18GW during base-load hours on Friday, up from 7.61GW on Thursday according to SpotRenewables.
  • Wind will then be at a 32% load factor, or 7.63GW on 22 February – which could place downward pressure on costs coupled with lower demand.
  • Power demand in France is forecast to decline to 58.25GW on Friday, down from 60.73GW on Thursday as mean temperatures in Paris are forecast to rise to 12.5C on Friday from 9.8C on Thursday and above the seasonal normal of 5.7C, according to Bloomberg.
  • Demand will then drop to 53.39GW the next day.
  • Nuclear availability in France declined to 77% of capacity as of Thursday morning, down from 80% on Wednesday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg