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POWER: French-German Discount Climbs to Highest Since Early Nov

POWER
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The French-German discount widened sharply, reaching its highest level since early November, driven by a 78% surge in German power prices due to a sharp drop in wind output. Meanwhile, stronger nuclear availability and a slower decline in French wind generation kept price increases in France more subdued. Looking ahead, while wind generation is expected to fall in both countries, higher load factors in France should maintain a price discount to Germany.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €266.54/MWh from €149.93/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €164.10/MWh from €126.21/MWh on the previous day.
  • France widened its discount to €102.44/MWh from €23.72/MWh in the previous session.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to decrease to 3.03GW, or a 5% load factor during base load on Wednesday from 16.11GW, or 25% load factor forecasted for Tuesday. Looking slightly ahead, wind will then drop further to 1.85GW the next day – likely keeping Germany at a premium to France and costs elevated.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to edge down to 61.74GW on Wednesday, down from 62.06GW on Tuesday amid mean temperatures in Dusseldorf forecast to fall to 3.2C on Wednesday from 5.3C on Tuesday and below the seasonal average of 3.9C. according to Bloomberg
  • Demand will then remain firm on 12 Dec to be at 61.44GW.
  • In contrast, Wind output in France is forecast to also decrease on the day to 4.17GW, or a 21% load factor during base load tomorrow from 7.25GW, or a 36% load factor forecasted for today.
  • Looking slightly ahead, wind will then be at 2.85GW on 12 Dec – which could continue to lift prices.
  • Power demand in France is forecast to rise to 66.82GW on Wednesday, up from 65.1GW on Tuesday amid mean temperatures in Paris forecast to decline to 4.9C on Wednesday from 5.4C on Tuesday and above the seasonal normal of 4.7C, according to Bloomberg.
  • Demand will then rise to 68.56GW on 12 Dec – likely supporting power prices.
  • Nuclear availability in France was operating at 85% of capacity as of Tuesday morning, up from 84% on Monday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
  • However, French nuclear generation capacity is currently curtailed by 590MW and hydropower generation by 950MW due to industrial action, Remit data showed.
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The French-German discount widened sharply, reaching its highest level since early November, driven by a 78% surge in German power prices due to a sharp drop in wind output. Meanwhile, stronger nuclear availability and a slower decline in French wind generation kept price increases in France more subdued. Looking ahead, while wind generation is expected to fall in both countries, higher load factors in France should maintain a price discount to Germany.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €266.54/MWh from €149.93/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €164.10/MWh from €126.21/MWh on the previous day.
  • France widened its discount to €102.44/MWh from €23.72/MWh in the previous session.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to decrease to 3.03GW, or a 5% load factor during base load on Wednesday from 16.11GW, or 25% load factor forecasted for Tuesday. Looking slightly ahead, wind will then drop further to 1.85GW the next day – likely keeping Germany at a premium to France and costs elevated.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to edge down to 61.74GW on Wednesday, down from 62.06GW on Tuesday amid mean temperatures in Dusseldorf forecast to fall to 3.2C on Wednesday from 5.3C on Tuesday and below the seasonal average of 3.9C. according to Bloomberg
  • Demand will then remain firm on 12 Dec to be at 61.44GW.
  • In contrast, Wind output in France is forecast to also decrease on the day to 4.17GW, or a 21% load factor during base load tomorrow from 7.25GW, or a 36% load factor forecasted for today.
  • Looking slightly ahead, wind will then be at 2.85GW on 12 Dec – which could continue to lift prices.
  • Power demand in France is forecast to rise to 66.82GW on Wednesday, up from 65.1GW on Tuesday amid mean temperatures in Paris forecast to decline to 4.9C on Wednesday from 5.4C on Tuesday and above the seasonal normal of 4.7C, according to Bloomberg.
  • Demand will then rise to 68.56GW on 12 Dec – likely supporting power prices.
  • Nuclear availability in France was operating at 85% of capacity as of Tuesday morning, up from 84% on Monday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
  • However, French nuclear generation capacity is currently curtailed by 590MW and hydropower generation by 950MW due to industrial action, Remit data showed.