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French-German July Spread Nears 6-Week Low

POWER

The French July power base-load contract has narrowed the discount to the German equivalent to the lowest since 15 May today, as an upward revision in temperature forecasts has lifted cooling demand expectations.

    • France Base Power JUL 24 up 13.8% at 54.25 EUR/MWh
    • Germany Base Power JUL 24 up 1.3% at 71.65 EUR/MWh
  • The French-German July power spread has narrowed to €17.48/MWh today as of the time of writing, down from this month’s high of €40.48/MWh on 3 June and the lowest since 15 May.
  • The latest ECMWF weather forecast for Paris suggested temperatures are expected to stay above the seasonal normal until 1 June, extending the warmer-than-usual period slightly, after which temperatures are forecast to drop below normal slightly. Maximum temperatures in Paris are forecast to reach 30C on 27 June.
  • In the south of France, Marseille, mean temperatures are forecast to remain above the seasonal normal until 3 July, despite a slight downward revision in temperatures for this week.
  • NW Europe is expected to have a daily average of three cooling degree days for the 1-5 days forecast period, which is two days above the 10-year average, according to WSI.
  • France’s power load so far this month stood below the seasonal normal and averaged 40.86GW.
  • French nuclear reactor availability remained high as of Tuesday morning with 70% of capacity online. Nuclear generation this month remained well above seasonal norm, averaging 38.36GW so far this month, which should limit gains in French front-curve power futures.
  • BNEF expected French nuclear availability at 59% in June.

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