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Fresenius Medical: FY23 Preview

HEALTHCARE
  • 4Q23 revenue growth expected at ~+1% YoY. Lower EBITDA expected at ~-6%.
  • DaVita reported last week, beating consensus expectations.
  • The big story in H2 last year was the impressive GLP-1 for kidney disease trials. The market has been calmed significantly on that risk since then, with DaVita laying out detailed analysis. They see the impact as neutral.
  • FMEGR 1.5 05/30 has tightened 34bp vs bunds this year, a stunning 153bp tighter from the GLP-1 wides of B+317 to B+164 currently.
  • Fresenius equity remains 20% below 2023 highs, while DaVita makes new all-time highs.

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