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Fresh Highs For USD/CNH Before Retracing

ASIA FX

Most USD/Asia pairs are firmer, although we are down from session highs, as USD/CNH spiked to a fresh high, before retracing. A firmer US yield backdrop has aided the USD, although a better regional equity tone late in the session has helped cap USD upside. Still to come late is India CPI and IP data. The data calendar is quiet tomorrow, but we are awaiting China new lending/credit figures for May.

  • USD/CNH made fresh highs close to 7.1600 (7.1590) but has retraced back sub 7.1400 this afternoon. A reversal of earlier equity market weakness, with onshore bourses tracking higher after the break is likely aiding CNH sentiment. Speculation continues around a possible MLF cut this Thursday, the Securities Journal stating a 5-10bps move could be delivered.
  • 1 month USD/KRW got to highs near 1292, as USD/CNH rose, but we now sit back at 1286.50, close to lows from late in NY on Friday. Local equities have struggled but are away from lows. Earlier data showed tentative signs of less headwinds around y/y export growth. BoK Governor Rhee also stated in a speech that it is too early to be confident on inflation easing, but attention needs to be paid to slowing growth as well.
  • USD/MYR prints at 4.6170/4.6210 the pair is ~0.1% firmer in early dealing. Palm Oil futures are trimming some of Fridays ~3% gain, down ~0.6%. We remain well within recent ranges and sit ~4.5% off cycle lows registered in early June. Malaysia named Shaik Rasheed Abdul Ghaffour as its new central bank governor, Malaysia's king approved Rasheed as the governor from July 1 for a period of 5 years. More info here. The local data calendar is empty this week.
  • USD/INR has opened dealing little changed from Friday's closing levels in a muted start to the week's dealing. Ranges continue to be narrow in recent dealing, the pair has see-sawed around the 20-Day EMA (82.49) with little follow through. Inflows into Indian equities from Foreign Investors continue, with $74.22mn on 8 June bringing to total inflow June to date to $721.3mn. On the wires today we have May CPI, the market expects a rise of 4.32% Y/Y moderating from 4.70% in April. Also due is Apr Industrial Production, a rise of 1.3% Y/Y is forecast, an uptick from 1.1% Y/Y in March.
  • The SGD NEER (per Goldman Sachs estimates) printed a cycle high on Friday before paring gains to finish a touch softer. We now sit ~0.6% below the upper end of the band. USD/SGD is a touch firmer in early dealing, the pair last prints at $1.3430/40 as broader greenback trends dominate in early dealing. Data-wise the only data of note this week is May Export data. Non-Oil Domestic Exports are estimated to have fallen 1.1% M/M and 7.6% Y/Y. Electronic Exports is also due, there is no estimate for the release.

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