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Fresh Trend Lows For USDMXN, Inflation Data Eyed

MEXICO
  • The USDMXN trend outlook remains bearish and the sustained break of key support at 18.50 emboldens the bearish theme. A fresh trend low of 18.3271 briefly placed the pair at the lowest level since April 2018, and signals a growing potential for a move towards more significant support at 17.9401, the 2018 lows. Initial resistance levels to watch are 18.50 and then 18.6499, the 20-day EMA.
  • Tomorrow, bi-weekly inflation data is expected to show the annual core reading declining to 7.81% from a prior reading of 7.88%. Additionally on Thursday, Banxico will release the minutes from its February meeting where they hiked rates by 50bps to 11.00% in a surprisingly hawkish decision.
  • In the minutes, Goldman Sachs have said they will be paying particular attention to discussions about how restrictive monetary policy should be, the real business cycle dynamics and implications related to the anticipation of a deeper FOMC hiking cycle.
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