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Friday’s Geopolitical Risk Bid Reversed, Retail Sales Ahead

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsy yields sit 4.5-5bp higher as the unwind of some of Friday's geopolitical risk premium has dominated proceedings.
  • TYM4 sits at session lows of 108-06 (- 16) on particularly high cumulative volumes of 550k. It marks a sizeable pullback from Friday’s high of 108-25+ and the trend needle points south with support at 107-27+ (Apr 11 low).
  • Retail sales and NY Fed’s Williams take the initial spotlight at 0830ET. The Empire State mfg survey also lands for the first look at April sentiment, although it has continued to be wildly volatile, limiting the market impact to surprises.
  • Data: Retail sales Mar (0830ET), Empire mfg Apr (0830ET), Business inventories Feb (1000ET), NAHB index Apr (1000ET)
  • Fedspeak: Williams BBG interview (0830ET), Daly fireside chat (2000ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $70B 13W, $70B 26W bill auctions (1130ET)
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  • Cash Tsy yields sit 4.5-5bp higher as the unwind of some of Friday's geopolitical risk premium has dominated proceedings.
  • TYM4 sits at session lows of 108-06 (- 16) on particularly high cumulative volumes of 550k. It marks a sizeable pullback from Friday’s high of 108-25+ and the trend needle points south with support at 107-27+ (Apr 11 low).
  • Retail sales and NY Fed’s Williams take the initial spotlight at 0830ET. The Empire State mfg survey also lands for the first look at April sentiment, although it has continued to be wildly volatile, limiting the market impact to surprises.
  • Data: Retail sales Mar (0830ET), Empire mfg Apr (0830ET), Business inventories Feb (1000ET), NAHB index Apr (1000ET)
  • Fedspeak: Williams BBG interview (0830ET), Daly fireside chat (2000ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $70B 13W, $70B 26W bill auctions (1130ET)