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Front-End Pinned By Strong CPI, Watch Industrial Prices

CANADA
  • GoCs open with further sizeable underperformance to Tsys with 2YY -0.6bps and long-end -3bps vs -4-5.5bps for USTs, which sees 2Y Can-US yield differentials touch new recent highs of +13bps and longer end yields continue to drift higher to +8bps.
  • It's likely driven by a combination of front-end GoCs being relatively pinned by yesterday’s strong CPI release and haven demand for Tsys.
  • Canadian industrial product prices are watched closely for further signs of price pressures, after Goldman's summary core CPI inflation measure accelerated from 5.1% to 6.2% on a 3-month annualized basis in April.
  • US Philly Fed is also watched as a repeat of the slide in the Empire State survey could drive a further rates rally.
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