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Front End Yields Continue To Climb, Jan CPI Out Next Wednesday

AUSSIE BONDS

Aussie bond futures sit lower, YM off -.06, XM down -045. Cash government bond yields are around 2-5bps firmer across the curve, led by the front end.

  • Spill over weakness has been evident from US TSYs. TYH4 is threatening a clean break sub Thursday lows. Fed speak has continued and generally pushed back against the idea of early rate cuts. Harker didn't rule out a cut in May but noted it wasn't the forecast and would rely on data surprising on the downside.
  • Goldman Sachs also now has 4 cuts this year instead of 5 (with May no longer penciled in) in terms of its Fed outlook.
  • For Aussie bond futures we remain with February ranges. YM lows came back on Feb 14 at 96.11 (last around 96.21).
  • 2yr swap rates have firmed nearly 3bps but at 4.04% remain sub earlier Feb highs (in contrast to NZ). The 10yr swap rate is up 3bps to 4.25%.
  • Looking ahead the data calendar holds Jan CPI next Wed (along with the RBNZ) as the next major domestic focus point.
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