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Front GoCs Outperform, Local Issuance Perhaps Weighing Further Out

CANADA
  • GoCs are outperforming Tsys at the front end (2YY -5bp vs -3.7bps) but otherwise trade almost in line with the rest of the curve 5.5-6bp richer.
  • Earlier C$ issuance might be helping the longer end trade more in line, with C$1B of the Ontario 2033 (tightest spread in recent months) and C$500m of CPPIB Capita’s 2033.
  • BoC-dated CORRA OIS prices a first BoC cut with the June meeting, something today’s Bloomberg analyst survey supports although a notable name looking for a later cut is GS with their call for Q3.
  • Beyond that, 3-month CORRA futures show cut expectations widening to 82bps on a Z3/Z4 basis, for what would be the largest close since the 85bp after CAD CPI on Nov 21.
  • Tomorrow sees US factors likely in the driving seat with next major local data focus on GDP data on Nov 30.
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