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Front Month JKM-TTF Spread and EU LNG Supplies Holding Steady

LNG

LNG supplies into Europe remain ready despite spreads still favouring spot deliveries to Asia over Europe. Diversions to Asia have been limited by high terminal storage levels in Asia, weak Chinese demand and warm weather in Japan.

  • The JKM-TTF spread is holding steady at around 5.3$/mmbtu today after dipping down to 4.25$/mmbtu on Friday. The US netback to Europe for February has also remained similar all week with today estimated at 16.98$/mmbtu compared to the US netback to Asia at 21.58$/mmbtu.
  • The US netbacks for March and beyond are back favouring flows to Europe over Asia after spreads earlier this week suggested little difference in the March netback.
  • LNG supplies into NW Europe were at 232mcm/d on 9 Jan in line with the average of the year so far. Record levels of 336mcm/d were seen during the cold weather early in December.
  • Currently 27 more cargoes are expected in to NW European LNG terminals this month.
    • TTF FEB 23 up 2.1% at 66.7€/MWh
    • NBP FEB 23 up 4.2% at 167.3p/th
    • JKM Feb 23 down -0.7% at 26.87$/mmbtu
    • JKM-TTF Feb 23 down -0.6$/mmbtu at 5.86$/mmbtu
    • US Natgas FEB 23 up 3.9% at 3.81$/mmbtu


Source: MNI / Bloomberg

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