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Fund Flows

CREDIT MACRO
  • Inflows in $IG/HY, small outflows from €IG/HY & £IG - those are reported to the week ending Wednesday. NFP linked rates moves (bunds +8, USTs +13) will have the final say. YTD total returns were already flirting around breakeven levels, todays moves if held onto will drag those negative again.
  • To Wednesday govvie inflows continued, Euro in particular seeing a spike perhaps in anticipation of ECB. It was the first of the Big 3 to cut rates and gave a clear example that early cuts does not imply better total returns ahead for credit; expectations out of it were a hawkish dragging bunds +4 higher and €IG total returns -18bps.
  • Supply has come firmer than expected; € & £ IG/HY incl. covered at €30b (vs. c~€23b) while $IG was at $33b (c$20b). NICs have continued to avg. higher across both regions, book cover hanging at the lower end locally, $IG tad firmer around 3x.
  • Expectations for next week stay unch at ~€20b with slight skew to financials. $IG also unch at $20b.

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