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Fund Flows & Supply Expectations

CREDIT MACRO
  • Strong inflows into $govvies, $equities, $IG, $HY and €IG. Smaller inflows into €HY and global equities. Flat flows into €govvies.
  • Above has done well to match $IG bank led bumper $44.5b in supply - well above expectations for $35b - while flows likely to stay irrelevant for us till the end of August. €/£IG/HY (incl. covered) supply was mute €12.2b this week, in-line with expectations for ~€10b.
  • IG spreads were +1-2 across all three regions with slight decompression in HY. $HY did come in but that divergence is mostly explained away on rates (bunds -7 vs. USTs +4).
  • €/£ IG/HY (incl. covered) expectations fall even further to ~€6.75b as earnings picks up next week. $IG expectations stay unch at a firm $35b.

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