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Fund Flows (supply expectations will come separately)

CREDIT MACRO
  • Data for the week ending Wednesday point to firm flows into all $/€/£ IG & HY. £HY was a slight exception with more mute inflows.
  • Outside credit, US govvies joined Europe in seeing outflows this week. US equities also turned to outflows for first time in a while while EM equities still held onto inflows.
  • More timely ETF data continues to point to a slight skew to inflows for $ credit with $IG's largest LQD seeing +$1.3b over the rolling week. €IG's IEAC flows have gone back to being mute.
  • Credit and in particular HY inflows continuing in the face of a risk-off move that carried over to equity outflows is noteworthy. Some see this as rotation out of leverage loans on the expectation of upcoming Fed cuts (floating vs. fixed exposure), some as funds continuing to come out of money markets into broader FI. Relatively mute outflows form US lev. loans and govvie outflows this week questions both those market theories.
  • Regardless the ongoing strength for credit flows is helping meet the seasonal pick-up in local supply; NIC's and book cover on aggregate for €IG deals this week showed no noticeable weakness vs. YTD averages
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