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Further FOMC Hike Questioned But Cuts Continue To Be Trimmed

STIR
  • Aside from near-term meetings, FOMC-dated OIS has continued to see how volatility long after the CPI release, most recently paring a sharp increase over the past hour.
  • Pricing for tomorrow’s decision as well as July has hardly budged from its sizeable decline on the data having now almost fully priced out a hike at tomorrow’s decision (+2bp after -4bp on the day) and a cumulative +17bp for Jul (-4.5bp) with the terminal technically being nudged into September with a cumulative +18bp.
  • Despite being off recent highs, year-end pricing has nevertheless seen decent increases, with just 17bps of cuts from terminal to an effective 5.09% at Dec’23 (+2.5bp), i.e. zero cuts from the current effective of 5.08%, and only dipping to 4.97% for the more volatile Jan'24 contract after a +9.5bp increase today.

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