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Futures At Session Lows, Sharp Reversal Off Yesterday’s High, Tokyo CPI Next Week


JGB futures are weaker and near Tokyo session lows, -28 compared to settlement levels.

  • There hasn’t been much in the way of domestic drivers to flag, outside of the previously outlined labour market and IP data.
  • At 146.18, today’s price action looks technically driven after JGB futures reversed off the 200-day moving average (continuation contract) at yesterday’s high of 147.16. According to MNI’s technicals team, 143.44, the Oct 31 low, marks key support should 144.93 give way.
  • Cash tsys are dealing flat to 1bp cheaper in the Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s month-end selling. The session has been subdued for US tsys with newsflow light. Accordingly, local participants have been content to sit on the sidelines ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s fireside chat later today.
  • The cash JGBs are generally cheaper, led by the belly, with yields 1.3bp lower (2-year) to 4.5bps higher (10-year). The benchmark 10-year yield is 0.716% versus yesterday’s low of 0.638%.
  • Swap rates are higher along the curve. Swap spreads are wider apart from the 7- to 30-year zone.
  • Next week, the local calendar sees Monetary Base data on Monday, ahead of Tokyo CPI and Jibun Bank Japan Composite & Services PMI data on Tuesday.
  • Monday sees BOJ Rinban operations covering 1- to 25-year+ JGBs.

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