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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessFutures At Session Lows, Through Key Support, 20-Year Supply Tomorrow
In the Tokyo afternoon session, JGB futures are sitting just off the Tokyo session’s worst levels at 147.27, -47 compared to the settlement levels. The session low so far has been 147.23. This comes despite PPI and Core Machine Orders data undershooting expectations.
- According to the MNI technicals team, a breach of 147.34 signals a deeper reversal and opens 146.11, the Feb 22 low.
- As reported by Bloomberg (ICYMI), the decline in JGB futures, coupled with the absence of any official statements from Japanese authorities, is intensifying speculation about a potential policy adjustment from the BoJ this month. Although the BoJ has not provided any hints, some traders are preparing for a larger JGB short position that could gain momentum and continue to grow once policy-tightening measures are eventually implemented. (See link)
- The cash JGB curve, beyond the 1-year zone, has bear steepened in the Tokyo afternoon session with the futures linked 7-year zone underperforming (3.8bp cheaper). The benchmark 10-year yield is 1.3bp higher at 0.472%, below the BoJ's YCC limit of 0.50%.
- The 20-year benchmark is 1.9bp cheaper at 1.093%, ahead of tomorrow’s supply.
- Swap rates are higher beyond the 1-year with the curve steeper. Swap spreads are wider beyond the 2-year.
- Tomorrow the local calendar sees International Investment Flow (Jul 7) along with 20-year supply.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.