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Futures Biased Lower, Cash Yield Curve Steeper

JGBS

JGB futures currently sit close to session lows, JBM4 last at 143.51, -.47 versus settlement levels. Upticks above 143.60 have sold by the market so far today.

  • Spillover from a softer US Tsy and EU bond futures backdrop have arguably been key drivers for JGB markets today. For US moves, this looks to be carry over from Friday's sharp selloff post the NFP/wages data beat.
  • For EU bond futures sentiment has been rattled by the Sunday EU parliamentary election results, which showed a swing to right-wing parties, while French President Macron has called a snap legislative election.
  • For JGB futures, downside focus will rest on whether we can re-test late May lows sub 143.00.
  • On the data front, we had Q1 GDP revisions earlier. Q/Q growth remained at -0.5%. Business spending remained negative but not to the degree as initially reported.
  • For cash JGB yields, the curve has steepened. 10yr yields sit near 1.03% up around 5bps. The 20-40yr tenors are 6-7bps higher. The 10yr swap rate is up a further 2bps to 1.055%.
  • Looking ahead, it is largely second tier data head of Friday's BoJ decision.
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