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Futures Down Ticked Overnight, National CPI Largely In Line With Expectations

JGBS

In post-Tokyo trade, JGB futures have upticked, closing +4 compared to settlement levels, despite US tsys finishing mostly cheaper after yesterday’s NY session. The US tsy curve twist-steepened, pivoting at the 5s, with yields 1bp lower to 5bps higher.

  • The key driver for the move was the US data dump, which showed lower-than-expected Initial Jobless Claims (187k vs 205k est), and higher-than-expected Building Permits (1.495M vs 1.476M est) and Housing Starts (1.460M vs 1.425M est, prior down-revised to 1.525M from 1.560M). MNI's Chicago Business Barometer was also revised higher to 47.2 in December from 46.9.
  • The probability of a March rate cut by the Fed briefly dipped below 50%, before finishing at 52%.
  • Japan’s National CPI has just been released showing a Headline Rate of 2.6% y/y versus expectations of 2.5% (2.8% prior). CPI Ex Fresh Food printed at 2.3% y/y versus 2.3% y/y est. (2.5% prior), while Ex Fresh-Food & Energy showed 3.7% y/y versus 3.7% est (3.8% prior). Also out later today is the November Tertiary Activity Index.
  • The BOJ will hold debt-buying operations for tenors of 1-3 years, 3-5 years, 5-10 years and over 25 years today.
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