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Futures Extend Overnight Weakness Ahead Of 2Y Supply

JGBS

JGB futures have extended overnight weakness in Tokyo morning trade, -24 compared to settlement levels. The local calendar is relatively light, with weekly International Investment Flows as the highlight.

  • Offshore investors sold local bonds last week, ending a 2-week run of inflows. The break higher in JGB yields in recent weeks may be weighing on sentiment in this space. Japan investors were net sellers of both offshore bonds last week. For local investors selling of offshore bonds may be reflective of similar drivers. The trend has been skewed towards net selling in recent months.
  • According to MNI’s technicals team, a bear trend in JGB futures persists, with prices piercing the bear trigger on the latest weakness. The contract traded through key support at 143.44, the Nov 1 low, exposing 142.13 and below.
  • Cash US tsys are flat to 1bp cheaper across benchmarks in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s bear-steepening.
  • Cash JGBs are 1-3bps cheaper across the curve. The benchmark 10-year yield is 1.4bps higher at 1.099%, a fresh cycle high.
  • Ahead of today’s supply, the 2-year is 0.8bp higher at 0.392%, a cyclical peak and the highest level since 2009.
  • The swaps curve has bear-steepened, with rates 1-2bps higher. Swap spreads are mostly tighter.
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