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Futures Near-Session Highs At Lunch, Bull-Flattener

JGBS

At the Tokyo lunch break, JGB futures are higher and near session highs, +19 compared to settlement levels, after being closed on Friday.

  • There hasn’t been much in the way of domestic drivers to flag, outside of the previously outlined PPI Services data. National CPI data for January is due tomorrow.
  • The cash JGB curve has bull-flattened, with yields flat to 2.0bps lower. The benchmark 10-year yield is 1.3bps lower at 0.707% versus the Nov-Dec rally low of 0.555%.
  • (Bloomberg) The 10-year real yield has fallen 1.5bps to -0.52% today and fallen 5.4bps since the start of the year.
  • (Bloomberg Economics) -- Japan’s core CPI inflation (excluding fresh food) likely slowed to 1.9% year on year in January from 2.3% in December. That would mark the first time since March 2022 for the core CPI to undershoot the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. (See link ICYMI)
  • The swaps curve has also bull-flattened, with rates flat to 2bps lower. Swap spreads are tighter.
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