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Futures Richer But At Tokyo Session Cheaps At Lunch

JGBS

At the Tokyo lunch break, JGB futures are stronger, +33 compared to settlement levels, but well below the post-Tokyo close (148.39) ahead of the weekend. At 148.11, JBU3 sits 63 points below Friday’s overnight high of 148.74.

  • There hasn’t been much in the way of domestic drivers to flag, outside of the previously outlined Jibun Bank PMI data.
  • In the latest Bloomberg survey (ICYMI, see link), 82% of economists forecast no policy change at the July meeting. Around 18% see the BOJ adjusting or scrapping yield curve control, with some of these economists seeing the potential for the BOJ to take advantage of calmer markets to make an early move on YCC.
  • The cash JGB curve has twist steepened in the Tokyo morning session, pivoting at the 10-year zone with yields 0.7bp lower to 1.8bp higher. The benchmark 10-year yield is 1.8bp higher at 0.468%, below BoJ's YCC limit of 0.50%. The 40-year zone is 0.8bp cheaper at 1.508% ahead of tomorrow’s supply.
  • The swap curve has bear steepened with rates 0.2bp to 3.9bp higher. Swap spreads are wider across the curve.
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