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JGBS: Futures Slightly After US Tsys Shortened Session

JGBS

In post-Tokyo trade, JGB futures are weaker, -5 compared to settlement levels, after US tsys finished Thursday's shortened session mildly richer for the National Day of Mourning for former President Carter. However, they finished off session bests as longs were squared ahead of Friday's headline December employment and UofM sentiment data. Wall Street was closed. 

  • Challenger job cut announcements continued their recent run of Y/Y increases in December, and were at the high end of recent Decembers, but don't show any signs of a sharp increase. Challenger job cuts increased 11% Y/Y to 38.8k in December, rounding out a year that saw Y/Y job cut announcements stabilize/fall a touch in 1H24 before climbing again in 2H24.
  • Today, the local calendar will see Household Spending, and Leading and Coincident Indices.
  • This comes after yesterday's firmer labor earnings data. The BoJ's regional economic report noted yesterday a mixed wages view.
  • Our Tokyo-based policy team noted: "Japanese businesses have provided a mixed picture on wage hikes this year, with some reporting increases to ensure necessary workers amid the labour shortage, while others have noted no, or reduced hikes, the Bank of Japan’s regional economic report showed on Thursday."
  • Market pricing for the Jan BoJ meeting is less than 50% priced for a 25bps hike.
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In post-Tokyo trade, JGB futures are weaker, -5 compared to settlement levels, after US tsys finished Thursday's shortened session mildly richer for the National Day of Mourning for former President Carter. However, they finished off session bests as longs were squared ahead of Friday's headline December employment and UofM sentiment data. Wall Street was closed. 

  • Challenger job cut announcements continued their recent run of Y/Y increases in December, and were at the high end of recent Decembers, but don't show any signs of a sharp increase. Challenger job cuts increased 11% Y/Y to 38.8k in December, rounding out a year that saw Y/Y job cut announcements stabilize/fall a touch in 1H24 before climbing again in 2H24.
  • Today, the local calendar will see Household Spending, and Leading and Coincident Indices.
  • This comes after yesterday's firmer labor earnings data. The BoJ's regional economic report noted yesterday a mixed wages view.
  • Our Tokyo-based policy team noted: "Japanese businesses have provided a mixed picture on wage hikes this year, with some reporting increases to ensure necessary workers amid the labour shortage, while others have noted no, or reduced hikes, the Bank of Japan’s regional economic report showed on Thursday."
  • Market pricing for the Jan BoJ meeting is less than 50% priced for a 25bps hike.