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JGBS: Futures Slightly Firmer Overnight On Friday, BoJ Decision On Friday

JGBS
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In post-Tokyo trade on Friday, JGB futures closed slightly higher, +3 compared to settlement levels, after US tsys finished on Friday with a modest bear-flattener. The US 2-year yield finished 5bps higher at 4.29%, while the 10-year nudged 2bps higher to 4.63%. 

  • Massive -46k Mar'25 2Y futures sale triggered a broad-based reversal by midmorning, while morning headlines that incoming President Trump held a call with China President Xi elevated volatility. Descriptions of a positive tone for China/US relations boosted the Chinese Yuan.
  • Reminder, that the US cash US tsy market and stock exchanges are closed today for Martin L. King Day. Also noteworthy, the Federal Reserve entered their policy Blackout at midnight Friday through January 30.
  • US corporate earnings pick up in earnest this week.
  • Locally, we have core machine orders on tap today for Nov, along with Nov final IP and capacity utilization. The tertiary index for Nov also prints. This comes ahead of Friday's BoJ meeting outcome, where the economic consensus and market pricing have shifted to strong hike odds.
  • Closer focus will rest on Trump's upcoming inauguration, with FX, JGBs and broader market risk sentiment likely most sensitive to any tariff announcements.
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In post-Tokyo trade on Friday, JGB futures closed slightly higher, +3 compared to settlement levels, after US tsys finished on Friday with a modest bear-flattener. The US 2-year yield finished 5bps higher at 4.29%, while the 10-year nudged 2bps higher to 4.63%. 

  • Massive -46k Mar'25 2Y futures sale triggered a broad-based reversal by midmorning, while morning headlines that incoming President Trump held a call with China President Xi elevated volatility. Descriptions of a positive tone for China/US relations boosted the Chinese Yuan.
  • Reminder, that the US cash US tsy market and stock exchanges are closed today for Martin L. King Day. Also noteworthy, the Federal Reserve entered their policy Blackout at midnight Friday through January 30.
  • US corporate earnings pick up in earnest this week.
  • Locally, we have core machine orders on tap today for Nov, along with Nov final IP and capacity utilization. The tertiary index for Nov also prints. This comes ahead of Friday's BoJ meeting outcome, where the economic consensus and market pricing have shifted to strong hike odds.
  • Closer focus will rest on Trump's upcoming inauguration, with FX, JGBs and broader market risk sentiment likely most sensitive to any tariff announcements.