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Futures Stronger Overnight With US Tsys, Cash Earnings Beat Expectations

JGBS

In post-Tokyo trade, JGB futures are sharply stronger, closing +26 compared to settlement levels.

  • April’s Labor and Real Cash Earnings beat expectations printing +2.1% y/y (+1.8% est and a revised +1.0% prior) and -0.7% y/y (-0.9% est and a revised -2.1% prior) respectively.
  • Overnight, US tsys rallied for the fourth successive day following softer-than-expected US labour market data. JOLTS Job Openings printed 8.059M vs. 8.350M est and 8.488M prior. The result was the lowest since Feb 2021.
  • However, US tsys did finish slightly off session highs amid late position squaring ahead of today’s ADP private employment data risk, a precursor to Friday's headline employment report.
  • Meanwhile, Factory Orders were a little stronger (0.7% vs. 0.6% est, 0.8% prior rev), Ex Transportation (0.7% vs. 0.5% est, 0.4% prior rev); Durable Goods Orders in-line/firmer (0.6% vs. 0.7% est), Ex Transportation (0.4% vs. 0.4% est); Cap Goods Orders Non-def Ex Air softer (0.2% vs. 0.3% est).
  • US tsys were also supported by oil prices, down around 1% after the 4% tumble on Monday following OPEC+’s plans to loosen its production curbs as early as October.
  • US late-year rate cut projections continued to gain vs. late Monday levels: Sep'24 cumulative -19.3bps (-17.2bps), Nov'24 cumulative -27.8bps (-25.3bps), Dec'24 -44.3bps (-40.6bps).
  • The local calendar will also see Jibun Bank Composite & Services PMI data today.
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