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Futures Stronger Overnights, US Tsys Rally ADP Data, BoC Cut Supportive

JGBS

In post-Tokyo trade, JGB futures are stronger, closing +14 compared to settlement levels, after US tsys extended their recent rally to day five. The 2- and 10-year US tsys finished 5bps richer at 4.72% and 4.28% respectively.

  • US tsys cheered further signs of a slowing job market and cooling price pressures, with the BoC's policy easing and plans for another in July bolstering hopes for global rate cuts.
  • ADP jobs gain was lower than expected at +152k vs. +175k est (192k prior down-revised to +188k).
  • Fast two-way flow reported after mixed ISM Services data: Index higher than exp (53.8 vs. 51.0 est), lower Prices Paid (58.1 vs. 59.0 est), in-line Employment (47.1 vs. 47.2 est) and higher New Orders (54.1 vs. 53.2 est).
  • US late-year rate cut projections gained vs. late Tuesday levels: Sep'24 cumulative -19.8bps (-19.3bps), Nov'24 cumulative -28.9bps (-27.8bps) and Dec'24 -47bps (-44.3bps).
  • The focus now turns to Thursday's Weekly Claims and Unit Labor Costs as well as the ECB Policy Decision, followed by Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls data.
  • Today, the local calendar will see Weekly International Investment Flow and Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies data alongside a speech from BoJ Board member Nakamura in Sapporo. The MoF also plans to sell Y900mn of 30-year JGBs.
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