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Futures Weaker Overnight As US Retail Sales Beat, Light Local Calendar

JGBS

In post-Tokyo trade, JGB futures are sharply weaker, closing -21 compared to settlement levels, after stronger-than-expected Retail Sales elicited a broad sell-off in US tsys. The US tsy curve bear-steepened, with yields 2-9bps higher. The 2Y yield was +2.4bps at 4.920%, 10Y +8bp to 4.601%, while the 2y10y was +2.593 at -32.120.

  • Ex-Auto Retail Sales rose 1.0% compared to 0.3% est, and February was revised 0.2pp higher to 0.5%. The control group, which feeds into GDP, was even stronger at 1.1% m/m. The data suggest that consumer spending was stronger than realised in Q1 and that there is solid momentum into Q2.
  • US equities finished with significant declines led by tech, amid the rise in yields. Additionally, investor concerns were intensified as Israel threatened retaliation.
  • Overnight moves in US tsys is keeping US-JP yield differentials close to recent highs, with the 10yr spread back towards mid Nov levels from last year (last around +373bps, although JGBs may see some pressure today in response to US moves on Monday).
  • Later today the US calendar will see Building Permits, IP/Cap-U, alongside Fed Speak with Chairman Powell moderating a Q&A session with BoC head Macklem.
  • Today, the local calendar is empty apart from an auction for Enhanced-Liquidity of 5-15.5-year JGBs.
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