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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
EM FX
- Using a Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) FX model, where we run a panel OLS regression of nominal rates on terms of trade, inflation and 10y interest rates differentials (using monthly data since 1998) , we find that:
- In the CEE region, the HUF is the most undervalued currency, the current spot rate is trading -12.2% below its 'fair' rate, followed by the CZK (-5%). The PLN appears to be 2% overvalued relative to the USD.
- GBP/CHF seems to be the value trade as GBP is the most undervalued currency vs. USD (-13%) while the CHF is the most overvalued currency (+7.8%).
Source: Bloomberg/MNI
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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