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Bulls Pause For Breath


Lead Serial Put Spd

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  • G10 FX price action failed to spark interest on Monday with fairly contained ranges to start the week, evidenced by an unchanged dollar index.
  • Initial Euro weakness was seen following the poor showing from the German conservative bloc in their Federal elections. EURUSD traded from 1.1720 down to 1.1685, falling just one pip shy of the post-FOMC lows. The selling pressure slowly dissipated throughout the day with the single currency drifting a little higher throughout the US session, back above 1.1800.
  • Bearish technical conditions were reinforced last week, opening up key support at 1.1664, Aug 20 low and an important bear trigger.
  • Beneficiaries of the relentless bid in crude markets were AUD and CAD, rising between 0.28-0.4%. USDCAD support at the 50-day EMA intersection of 1.2609 has held today. However, with Brent futures narrowing the gap with $80, a clear breach of this average may signal scope for a deeper pullback, potentially exposing the 200-day at 1.2523.
  • The weaker Japanese Yen helped extend the strong bounce for cross/JPY from the September 21 lows with AUDJPY and CADJPY rising close to 0.6% for today's session.
  • Australian retail sales data is due overnight before a fairly heavy slate of speakers. These include ECB's Lagarde and MPC's Mann, followed by FOMC Chair Powell and members Evans, Bowman and Bostic.