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EGBS: Gains Continue Following Transatlantic Service PMI Weakness

EGBS
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  • Flash service PMIs have set the tone for EGBs on multiple occasions today, with the soft US services driving a further rally after this morning’s sizeable miss for France was followed by stabilization on an almost in-line Germany.  
  • RZH5 has recently touched session highs of 132.40 in a step back closer to resistance at 132.59 (20-day EMA) after which lies a key near-term resistance at 132.97 (Feb 13 high).
  • Germany outperforms ahead of Sunday’s election, with 10Y yields -6.9bp on the day. See the MNI German Election Preview.
  • Spreads to Bunds widen across all major members as equities are also under pressure today, not helped recently by Trump saying it is not important for Zelenskiy to be at peace meetings.
  • Widening is led by OAT-Bund (+2bp to 75bp) for its highest since Feb 11-12 with its mechanical widening on new issues and before that early Feb.
  • BTP-Bund is +1bp at 109bp, back close to where it started the week via a low of ~104bp having cleared recent lows of 106bp to open the 98bp area from Sep 2021 lows. 
image
OAT-Bund spread. Source: Bloomberg
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  • Flash service PMIs have set the tone for EGBs on multiple occasions today, with the soft US services driving a further rally after this morning’s sizeable miss for France was followed by stabilization on an almost in-line Germany.  
  • RZH5 has recently touched session highs of 132.40 in a step back closer to resistance at 132.59 (20-day EMA) after which lies a key near-term resistance at 132.97 (Feb 13 high).
  • Germany outperforms ahead of Sunday’s election, with 10Y yields -6.9bp on the day. See the MNI German Election Preview.
  • Spreads to Bunds widen across all major members as equities are also under pressure today, not helped recently by Trump saying it is not important for Zelenskiy to be at peace meetings.
  • Widening is led by OAT-Bund (+2bp to 75bp) for its highest since Feb 11-12 with its mechanical widening on new issues and before that early Feb.
  • BTP-Bund is +1bp at 109bp, back close to where it started the week via a low of ~104bp having cleared recent lows of 106bp to open the 98bp area from Sep 2021 lows. 
image
OAT-Bund spread. Source: Bloomberg