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Gas Mid-Day Summary: TTF Climbs

NATGAS

TTF front month is stronger today, rebounding from a low of €28.05/MWh April 24. Support comes from falling Norwegian gas supplies during planned maintenance and storage withdrawals due the recent cold weather.

  • TTF MAY 24 up 3.5% at 30.05€/MWh
  • TTF Q3 24 up 3.5% at 30.67€/MWh
  • Warmer than normal temperatures are however forecast across Europe in the coming two weeks, with temperatures in NW Europe peaking around May1 before drifting back towards normal.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe have today declined further with nominations of 273.3mcm/d compared to around 340mcm/d in mid-April. Flows are expected to decline further with capacity reductions still expected to peak at 101.7mcm/d on April 27 according to Gassco data.
  • European gas storage declined again yesterday amid net withdrawals in the two days to April 23. GIE data shows total stores are now 61.87% full compared to the five year average of 45.1%.
  • The US Freeport LNG export terminal reported a trip on the third liquefaction train according to a TCEQ filing yesterday.
  • US LNG exports are currently more profitable to Asia for June, July, and August delivery, according to Bloomberg.
  • The long-term demand outlook for both natural gas and LNG remains very encouraging, Baker Hughes CEO Lorenzo Simonelli said, cited by Platts.
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