Gas Spreads Favour Europe despite High JKM

Gas spreads strongly favour LNG flows to Europe despite high Asia prices and Japan, S Korea and Taiwan looking to secure for LNG supplies for winter.

• TTF SEP 22 up 1.6% at 273.25€/MWh
• JKM Sep 22 down -2.6% at 56.33$/mmbtu
• The potential end of the Prelude wage dispute and restart of the Australian export facility should help ease supply to Asia and therefore some of the pressure on global LNG supplies. However, US Freeport LNG yesterday announced a postponement of their restart from October to November therefore delaying the return of supply to the gas market.
• The October US netback to Europe is estimated at 70.45$/mmbtu while the netback from US to Asia is 44.80$/mmbtu.
• LNG imports into NW Europe are just below 200mcm/d compared to a seasonal normal of closer to 50mcm/d. Imports peaked in March at around 300mcm/d.