Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Climbs

Front month TTF has climbed to its highest level since Jan. 17 supported by forecasts for below-normal temperatures from the end of the second week in February and the risks of wider geopolitical tensions on supply.

• TTF FEB 24 up 4.8% at 29.54€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 4% at 30.25€/MWh
• Markets are waiting for the US response following the attack on its troops stationed in Jordan over the weekend.
• NW and central Europe are expected to see above normal temperatures in the coming week before easing back to below normal from 11 February.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated slightly lower on the day at 345.9mcm/d today.
• European natural gas storage was 71.54% full on Jan 28 according to GIE data compared to the seasonal five-year average of 58.7%.
• European gas market will have weaker price upside in 2024 than previous years with bearish fundamentals according to the ICIS 2024 outlook for European gas, power and carbon markets.
• Gas supply to Europe during winter 2023-2024 is forecast to decline by 3% on the year to 842mcm/d due to sluggish demand according to BNEF.
• Global weekly LNG imports edged up by 2% to 8.7mn tons during 22-28 January, according to BNEF.
• North African LNG exports – from Algeria and Egypt – stood at 1.18mn tons on 1-30 January, down from 1.34mn tons in December, according to Platts.