Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Extends Losses

Front month TTF has pulled back today, extending earlier losses, amid forecasts for mild weather and sufficient supplies.

• TTF APR 24 down 4.1% at 27.33€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down 3.6% at 27.63€/MWh
• Above normal temperatures are forecast across most of Europe in the coming two weeks although with cooler weather in the far west and Nordics. Temperatures in NW Europe could drift back closer to normal after the first few days of April.
• European gas demand has been limited this winter with the assistance of strong renewables growth according to IEA analyst Greg Molnar.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated at 342.6mcm/d today having recovered from a drop in supplies earlier this month due to field outages. Flows could dip again in early April amid planned outages at Karsto.
• European LNG sendout fell to the lowest since mid October at 291mcm/d on Mar. 24 compared to an average of 339mcm/d so far in March.
• European gas storage was at 59.18% full on Mar. 24 according to GIE compared to the seasonal five year average of 41.6%.
• The daily storage change showed the first net injections of the year on Mar. 23 of 224GWm/d but returned to a small net withdrawal the following day.
• The total estimated quantity of LNG on tankers that have not unloaded for at least 20 days declined by 5.3% last week to 3.48mn tons as of 24 March, according to Bloomberg estimates.
• Global weekly LNG imports edged up by 1% to 7.5mn tons during 18-24 March, with China, South Korea and NW Europe ramping up imports according to BNEF.
• The LNG market is set for battle in 2026-30 between Asian LNG demand growth and a large wave of new supply according to Timera Energy.