Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Falls

TTF front month is losing ground today as supply from Sudzha remains stable despite Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk.

• TTF SEP 24 down 1.2% at 39€/MWh
• Reuters reporting that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says he discussed with top officials the humanitarian situation in Kursk region, and "creation of military administrations if necessary."
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are again nominated at the normal level at 42.4mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated at 332mcm/d with capacity reductions of 25.6mcm/d today falling to 16mcm/d tomorrow according to Gassco.
• The temperature forecast for NW Europe remains relatively unchanged on the day with a cooling trend back to near normal in the coming days with at or slightly above normal expected in the second week of the outlook.
• European gas in store is edging towards the EU prewinter target up to 87.85% full on Aug 12 according to GIE compared to the five-year average of 79.8%.
• LNG stockpiles held by Japanese utilities increased 3.66% w/w to 1.98m tons in the week to Aug. 11, according to data released by the trade ministry.
• The LNG vessel, Georgiy Brusilov, has arrived at Naoetsu in Japan, the first Russian Yamal LNG cargo to Japan since June 2023
• Greece’s new 5.5 bcm/y FSRU import facility at Alexandroupolis is set to start up in October, according to Platts citing Bulgaria’s Energy Minister Vladimir Malinov.
• Morgan Stanley sees the TTF gas price averaging $11.5/Mmbtu in Q3 2024, according to Reuters.
• MNI Gas Weekly: All Eyes on Sudzha: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/65843/MNI%20Gas%20Weekly%20-%20All%20Eyes%20on%20Sudzha.pdf