Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Falls Further

Front month TTF extends the trend lower to the lowest level since Sep. 18, amid steady Norwegian and LNG supplies paired with forecasts for mild weather. The market expects current supply and stocks to manage any periods of exceptionally cold weather.

• TTF JAN 24 down -2.6% at 35.2€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 down -2.5% at 35.51€/MWh
• Above normal temperatures are still forecast for NW and central Europe throughout the coming two weeks although with a slight dip in the next couple of days.
• European natural gas storage was down to 90.75% full on Dec 10 according to GIE data compared to the seasonal five year average of 80.6% amid smaller than normal withdrawals of last weekend.
• Pipeline supplies into Europe from Norway are today up to 351.6mcm/d compared to an average so far this month of 350mcm/d.
• Chevron aims to increase gas sales from its Tamar gas field to Egypt to an additional 43bcm of gas, in additional to the already contracted 25.3bcm contracted to 2034 according to Mees.
• European LNG sendout was down at 351mcm/d on Dec 10 with muted demand due to warm weather. LNG at sea for at least 20 days has increased slightly in recent days to hold just above the previous five-year range.
• The total estimated quantity of LNG on tankers that have not unloaded for at least 20 days decreased by 8.7% last week to the lowest level since end-September, while LNG at sea for 30 days edged higher on the week according to Bloomberg estimates.
• Global LNG imports are forecast to rise by 10% on the month to 38mn tons in December, up by 4% year on year, with North Asian imports projected to lead the growth amid rising heating demand and nuclear maintenance according to BNEF.
• The recent tax on transit gas flows through Bulgaria has been suspended after failing to collect any Russian payments according to Montel sources.
• Finnish and Baltic gas demand in November rose to the highest monthly level since December 2022 according to Argus.