Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Hovering At Early Oct Lows

TTF front month has regained some of its earlier losses but is continuing to be down on the day and on track for the lowest closing level since Oct. 9. Tepid demand, healthy near-term supply and high storage are helping to assuage any concerns of winter supply risks.

• TTF DEC 23 down -1.9% at 43.14€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 down -1.7% at 44.3€/MWh
• Temperatures in NW and central Europe are forecast to remain slightly below normal through the first week of December.
• European natural gas demand stood 350mcm/d below the 2016-2020 average in the first three weeks of November according to BNEF.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today unchanged at 346mcm/d amid corrective maintenance at Aasta Hansteen today but with uncertain duration.
• European natural gas storage is down to 97.43% full on Nov 26 according to GIE data seasonal five year average is 86.2% with near normal withdrawal rates.
• European LNG sendout was back up to 432mcm/d on Nov 26 after a dip below 350mcm/d late last week compared to an average of 404mcm/d so far in November.
• Europe is likely to exit the winter with gas storage facilities at around 55% full, Moody’s said in a note, cited by Montelnews.
• Global weekly LNG imports fell by 14% on the week to 7.6mn tons during 20-26 November, driven by a decline in shipments to North Asia and NW Europe according to BNEF.
• The total estimated quantity of LNG on tankers that have not unloaded for at least 20 days increased by 0.7% over the last week to 4.25mn tons as of 26 November, according to Bloomberg estimates.
• The rising costs of Shale gas production in the coming years will have a knock-on effect in boosting global LNG prices, Gazprom said as reported by TASS.