Gas Summary at European Close: TTF on the Rise

TTF has found support during the European afternoon session. Rising outages in Norway and a stronger pull of marginal LNG cargoes to Asia is likely supportive. Upside remains capped by strong storage levels above 90%.

• TTF SEP 24 up 2.1% at 37.65€/MWh
• RES 1: €38.53 - High Aug 21
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today down to 309.80mcm/d, according to Bloomberg. Gassco shows capacity reductions of 34.4mcm/d today rising to 136.46mcm/d on Aug 30 and a peak of 196.6mcm/d on Sept. 13.
• Temperatures in NW Europe are seen above normal for the remainder of August and into the start of September.
• Gas transit flows via Sudzha are still nominated near normal at 42.0 mcm/d today, Bloomberg said.
• European gas stores continue to build beyond the EU target level up to 91.22% full on Aug 24 according to GIE.
• The future of Russian gas flows via Ukraine remains a key uncertainty for European gas prices, even as the continent heads into winter with full storage, Total CEO Patrick Pouyanne told Reuters.
• A sanctioned LNG tanker appears to be transferring its Russian cargo via STS in the Med, Bloomberg said.
• Asian LNG prices fell for the first time in four weeks last week, according to Reuters, amid signs of peaking seasonal demand.
• Asian LNG freight is likely to move up in the next few months due to winter demand and tying in some ships for term deliveries, Platts said.
• Qatar will sign a new 15-year deal to provide 2m mtpa of LNG to Kuwait starting 2025, Bloomberg said.
• Europe is the destination for a larger share of WAF exports in August, despite an open arbitrage to Asia, Platts said.
• Argentina’s Enarsa is looking to buy two cargoes for September and October delivery via tender, according to Bloomberg.