Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Pulls Back

Front month TTF has pulled back today with bearish fundamentals, a downward revision in temperatures for NW Europe next week while supply risks appear reduced.

• TTF AUG 24 down 3% at 32.69€/MWh
• TTF Q3 24 up 2.1% at 35.05€/MWh
• Temperatures in NW Europe remain cool this week but are expected to gradually recover back above normal from early next week.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated at 334.4mcm/d.
• Total European stores are up to 77.62% full on July 1 according to GIE.
• Ukraine is discussing the transit of natural gas from Azerbaijan to the EU to maintain its role as a transit country and help EU energy security, President Zelenskiy said.
• Underground natural gas storage in Ukraine has reached 9.5bcm as of July 3, according to Naftogaz CEO Oleskiy Chernyshov.
• Russia is ready to continue gas flows to Europe via Ukraine after the end of current transit agreement in December, Deputy PM Alexander Novak told Interfax.
• LNG stockpiles held by Japanese utilities increased 0.97% w/w to 2.09m tons in the week to June 30.
• LNG spot charter rates in the Atlantic basin have continued to strengthen since May, facing a late June rally.
• LNG futures traded volumes in H1 2024 rose year-on-year, Platts said.
• Russian pipe natural gas and LNG supply to Europe was again greater than US LNG arrivals in Jun-24, according to ICIS figures by 0.24bcm.
• The TTF price forecast for 2024 has been raised by 9% from the April forecast to €33.16/MWh due to supply risks, according to UBS cited by Montel.
• MNI Gas Weekly: Prices Slip Back as Supply Concerns Ease: Full piece here: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/65094/MNI%20Gas%20Weekly%20-%20%20Prices%20Ease%20Back%20as%20Supply%20Concerns%20Ease.pdf