Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Rebounds on Norway Outages

TTF front month is edging higher, removing some of the earlier gains as several outage extensions in Norway will curtail Norwegian natural gas supplies to Europe well into the first week of October.

• TTF OCT 23 up 0.3% at 39.4€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 down -1.1% at 45.54€/MWh
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated at 236.7mcm/d with outages expected to fall further this week, before picking up next week after the Troll and Skarv fields added additional outages from 3 October.
• European natural gas storage is up to 95.19% full on 26 Sep according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 86.8%.
• Total natural gas demand in the UK this winter is forecast to edge higher by 1% year on year to 39.9bcm, driven by higher non-daily metered demand, while gas output for power generation will offset some of the gains according to the National Gas UK Winter Outlook.
• German natural gas consumption last week stood 28.6% below the 2018-2021 average, compared with 24.7% the week prior, Bnetza data show.
• Swiss hydropower reserves increased quicker last week by 2.8 percentage points to 87.4% of capacity, or 7.78TWh, as of 25 September, switching to a surplus to the five-year and long-term averages, BFE data show.
• LNG sendout to Europe is up to 291mcm/d on 26 Sep from as low as 236mcm/d on 23 Sep but still well below levels around 370mcm/d seen this time last year.
• .Indian spot LNG procurement is failing to pick up amid higher prices, which is weighing on Asian LNG spot prices, that eased back from seven-month high earlier this week.
• JKM Oct 23 up 0.5% at 14.6$/mmbtu
• JKM-TTF Oct 23 down -0.6$/mmbtu at 1.78$/mmbtu
• LNG buyers are holding out for more flexible terms in long-term contract negotiations, according to Platts.
• Gazprom has completed its autumn's full-scale preventative maintenance work on the Power of Siberia pipeline according to an official statement by the company. The pipeline supplies gas from Russia to China.