Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Rises

TTF front month has rebounded today amid support from supply risks. This has been heightened by an outage at Norway’s Oseberg field. Prices have returned to closing levels from July 2.

• TTF AUG 24 up 2.2% at 33.41€/MWh
• TTF Q3 24 up 2.1% at 35.05€/MWh
• Temperatures in NW Europe are set to hold slightly below normal into this weekend before edging back above normal next week.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated down slightly to 330.6mcm/d. Gassco is showing capacity reductions of 26mcm/d this week falling to 16mcm/d next week.
• Total European stores are up to 77.87% full on July 2 according to GIE compared to the five-year average of 67.9% with net injection rates holding just below normal.
• A Russian missile attack on Ukraine’s Poltava region on July 4 damaged gas infrastructure, Ukraine’s Ministry said July 4, cited by Reuters.
• Australia faces the risk of a gas shortfall by 2027 and could require the redirection of spot LNG supplies for domestic consumers,
• LNG cargo deliveries are not expected to see major impacts from the passage of hurricane Beryl through the Caribbean, Platts said.
• Global LNG liquefaction levels are now back above 2023 levels, and notably, above the five-year average, according to Platts.
• German LNG imports and sendout were the highest they have ever been in June according to ICIS.
• Gastrade expects to launch commercial operations at Greece’s 5.5bcm Alexandroupolis FSRU-based LNG import terminal in October.
• Asian LNG demand flexibility is rapidly emerging as a new force for setting global marginal prices, Timera said.
• Egypt has contracted for all the fuel it will need to end load-shedding power cuts this summer its Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said.
• NW European LNG prices have trended below oil-index contract prices and could favour spot cargo purchases, Platts said.