Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Set for Lowest Since Early Oct

TTF front month has seen a continued fall throughout the day to approach its lowest close since Oct. 6, prior to the start of the Israel-Hamas conflict. Strong short-term supplies from Norway and through LNG imports are offsetting cooler weather. High stock levels are also adding downside.

• TTF DEC 23 down -6.7% at 39.9€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 down -6.2% at 41.15€/MWh
• European gas prices are demonstrating market confidence of comfortably getting through the winter, which should keep prices steady through the colder months, according to Bloomberg.
• European gas storage inventories are currently at 97.0%, compared to the five-year average of 73.9%.
• EU storage withdrawals are ramping up quickly and reached close to 0.5 bcm/d this week as colder weather takes hold and drives space heating in the residential and commercial sectors according to IEA gas analysts.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are slightly down on the day at 341.8mcm/d.
• European LNG sendout was back up again to 470.5mcm/d on Nov 27 compared to an average of 404mcm/d so far in November and 325mcm/d seen in October.
• LNG inventories held by Japanese utilities fell by 6.43% on the week to 2.33mn tons as of 26 November according to trade ministry data.
• Spain has imported 4.5mn tons of Russian LNG so far in 2023, compared with 3.7mn tons for the entire year of 2022 and 2.4mn tons for the whole of 2021, Bloomberg ship-tracking data showed.
• Cheniere has signed a long-term Integrated Production Marketing (IPM) gas supply agreement with ARC Resources and OMV for its Sabine Pass Expansion project according to Bloomberg.
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