Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Trading Higher

TTF front month is trading higher, although has softened from the intraday high of 51.115 €/MWh, amid colder weather forecasts in Northwest Europe. The TTF 1Q24 premium over the front month narrowed today as further delays in a ground invasion of Gaza hold of escalation and with-it potential supply risks.

• TTF NOV 23 up 2.8% at 50.63€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 up 0.8% at 55.2€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 0.2% at 53€/MWh
• TTF Q124-NOV 23 up 0.4€/MWh at 4.59€/MWh
• The latest weather forecast has been slightly revised down for end-Oct/early-Nov with temperatures expected to fall below the average on 4 Nov before rising again.
• The latest investigations by the Finnish National Bureau of Investigation showed that the damage to the Balticconnector pipeline was likely the result of an errant anchor dropped from the Hong Kong registered shipping vessel, the Newnew Polar bear.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today down to 302.4mcm/d with supplies from Troll curbed for two days and also from Oseberg due to process problems with an uncertain duration.
• End of season injections into European natural gas storage continue to bring levels up to 98.63% full on 23 Oct according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 90%
• LNG flows to Northwest Europe were at 252.95mcm/d on 23 October, up by 52% from the 30-day moving average.
• Marginal volumes of US LNG are still heading to Europe, despite the arbitrage economics favouring Asia, amid delays at the Panama Canal, Platts said.
• TotalEnergies is expected to make a final investment decision on a new LNG terminal at Mozambique's Matola port by September next year.
• LNG stockpiles held by Japanese power generators rose another week by 3.72% to 2.23mn tons as of 22 October, the highest level since June, trade ministry data showed.
• Egyptian LNG exports are below the seasonal average and showing signs to be clearly impacted by the conflict in Israel, Goldman Sachs said in a note.
• The LNG vessel Minerva Limnos has diverted to the US after it was initially due to arrive in Egypt according to Bloomberg ship-tracking data, just after last week a vessel diverted from Egypt to Algeria.
• India’s September LNG imports rose by 21% year on year to 2.27bn m³ in September, supported by rising power demand during the festive season and as industrial activity gained momentum following the end of the monsoon season according to preliminary oil ministry data.
• MNI Commodity Weekly: US Sanctions Relief for Venezuela Faces Pressure After Opposition Election Result -Full piece here: https://enews.marketnews.com/ct/x/pjJscQOJlL0I6ag0ckgnSw~k1zZ8KXr-kA8x6nEW5X1ptIPjO1OcQ