Gas Summary: TTF Crosses €30/MWh

TTF front month has rallied back above €30/MWh as the market remains sensitive to supply risks despite high storage levels.

• TTF SEP 23 up 5.9% at 30.55€/MWh
• NBP SEP 23 up 6.1% at 77.39p/th
• TTF is gaining ground amid lower LNG flows and concern for further upcoming Norway maintenance despite a recovery in Norwegian flows over the weekend with the return of some Troll capacity. More Troll works are however expected starting next week, and another significant period of Norway maintenance is expected from 26 August according to Gassco. Overall supplies from the UK have also increased over the weekend as works ended at the Greater Britannia in the UK.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are back up to 327.7mcm/d. Flows have recovered from lows around 304mcm/d seen last week but below levels up to 340mcm/d from the end of July.
• LNG sendout to Europe is the lowest since 2021 with flows into NW Europe still below volumes seen this time last year and with a drop in supply to Italy this month according to data via Bloomberg. Global competition for LNG supplies provides upside pressure with near term US LNG exports more profitable to Asia than Europe.
• Total European gas in store was up to 87.1% full on a 5 Aug according to GIE data compared to the five-year average for this time of year is 72.6%. Net European storage injections have averaged about 3,115GWh/d in the last week compared to the five year average for the period of just over 3,700GWh/d.
• TTF gaining faster than JKM has pushed the front month JKM-TTF spread back to near 1$/mmbtu from over 2$/mmbtu early last week.
• The US LNG netback to Europe for September was at 5.96$/mmbtu with the netback to Asia at 7.26$/mmbtu according to Bloomberg before the TTF open today.
• JKM-TTF Sep 23 down -0.5$/mmbtu at 0.96$/mmbtu
• The Kuwait Petroleum Company has purchased a flurry of LNG cargoes through spot tenders to meet rising demand amid a summer heatwave.
• Germany’s FSRU at Stade will be operational from December according to the operator.
• China is expected to receive 17 cargoes comprising 1.16m mt of LNG in the seven days to August 10, according to OilChem.