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Gas vs Crude Key for LNG Value with Market Not Yet Back to ‘Normal’: Timera

LNG

Relative shifts in gas vs crude pricing are one of the key drivers of LNG portfolio value with the market not yet back to a pre-crisis ‘normal’ according to Timera Energy. Oil indexation remains prominent, particularly in Pacific Basin LNG contracts but market value is now driven by liquid gas hubs such as TTF and JKM.

  • Relative oil vs gas pricing swings have a substantial value impact on LNG Sale & Purchase Agreements. The pricing is also an important driver of the value of flexibility in oil-indexed SPAs such as volume flex & cancellation rights.
  • The pre energy crisis relationship between TTF and both the Brent indexed contract pricing and the European coal for gas switching range was disrupted by the halt to Russian gas supplies into Europe.
  • Despite the TTF price correction this year the market hasn’t returned to a pre-crisis ‘normal’ with the gas market tight and high volatility expected at least until the next wave of LNG supply from late 2025.


Source: Timera Energy

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