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Gasoline Cracks Continue Slow Recovery from Mid October Low

OIL PRODUCTS

Gasoline cracks continue to edge back higher after reaching a low in mid October as the front month US spread increases from around 7.0$/bbl on 13 Oct up to 11.2$/bbl today. The Front month RBOB gasoline price is up from 215.3c/gal on 12 Oct to 233.8c/gal.

  • Weaker than normal demand following the summer driving season and building gasoline stocks had been weighing on gasoline prices since mid August. Supplies remain steady as refining utilisation is boosted by healthy refining margins driven by robust diesel cracks although is currently limited by refinery maintenance.
  • EIA data implied demand has seen a slight recovery in recent weeks although US gasoline demand fell 1.8% last week to 8.7mb/d and 0.2% below the four-week average according to GasBuddy.
  • European gasoline arrivals in the US were unchanged on the week to 19 Oct at the four week low of 174kb/d, according to bills of lading and ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. So far this month shipments have averaged 200kb/d compared to 240kb/d in Oct 2022 and the ytd average of 290kb/d.
  • Nymex RBOB gasoline futures daily traded volumes have fallen below normal this week to 112k yesterday compared to an average of 160k so far this month and 182k in September.
    • RBOB NOV 23 up 0.3% at 2.34$/gal
    • EU Gasoline-Brent up 0.3$/bbl at 6.34$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack up 0.2$/bbl at 11.23$/bbl


Source: Bloomberg

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