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Gasoline Cracks Edge Higher Amid Demand Rise and Refinery Outages

OIL PRODUCTS

US Gasoline cracks have been bouncing in the 16.5$/bbl to 20$/bbl range since mid January with support from refinery outages amid uncertainty over demand. Clean petroleum product flows have been impacted with a significant decrease in takers transiting the Suez because of Red Sea transit risks.

  • The European Gasoline-Brent spread has however been edging higher since mid Dec with added support from refinery maintenance in Middle East and the upcoming refinery maintenance season.
  • Weekly (Sun-Sat) US gasoline demand increased 4.6% from the prior week to the highest level since Christmas and was 4.0% above the average of the last four weeks according to GasBuddy data.
  • Russian gasoline production exports were reduced last month by 31.5% y/y to 442.3k tons according to Kommersant. The Russian Energy Ministry said on Wednesday that gasoline exports were reduced in January by 37% y/y. Poor weather and rising Ukrainian drone attacks on energy infrastructure are limiting Russian refinery runs.
  • Data last week showed US gasoline stocks 1.6% above the five year average while European ARA Gasoline stocks are 23.8% below average.
    • RBOB MAR 24 down 0% at 2.15$/gal
    • EU Gasoline-Brent up 0.8$/bbl at 14.81$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack up 0.7$/bbl at 18.33$/bbl
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