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Gasoline Cracks Steady After Recent Rally

OIL PRODUCTS

US gasoline margins are edging lower today after seeing a strong rally in the last 10 days with the US crack up from around 28.2$/bbl on 8 May to a high of nearly 37$/bbl today.

  • The rally has been driven by the slightly more positive outlook from the wider financial markets combined with low US inventory levels and potential for lower run rates in Q3. Gasoline four week average implied demand has edged up to the highest since Dec 2021 but is still at the low end of the five year seasonal range (excluding 2020) ahead of the typical summer driving season boost.
  • Diesel cracks have followed the move higher however strength has been more muted due to the current weak demand data and ongoing concerns to US economic risks and potential for any further US Fed rate hikes. Strong global supplies have limited upside moves although a decline in Russian oil product exports amid refinery maintenance is supportive. US diesel margins have seen some support from healthy exports to Europe enabled by cheap transatlantic freight rates.
    • US 321 crack down -0.3$/bbl at 33.77$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack down -0.4$/bbl at 36.09$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down 0$/bbl at 29.13$/bbl
    • EU Gasoline-Brent down -0.1$/bbl at 20.95$/bbl
    • EU Gasoil-Brent down 0$/bbl at 16.65$/bbl
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