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Gatwick (GATAIR/Opco Snr Secured; Baa2 Pos, BBB S, BBB+ S) Fair Value

CONSUMER CYCLICALS
  • We see IPT (T+14) coming tight (+15bps) to our FV is at Z+181bps or UKT+125 (T 4.25% 12/2040).
  • Gatwick curve trades in-line with Heathrow 1st Lien (NR, BBB+, A-) on the 41's and long-end (similar cash prices)- that's been driven by Gatwick outperformance recently on a spread rally - no rating changes on either recently.
  • Gatwick does have exposure to the faster recovering budget/short-haul segment (see yesterday's note). Still given 1 notch higher rating & historical ~20bp discount for GATAIR leaves us seeing the 41's as tight vs FV secondary- that view is echoed in shorter 29/30's that is still spread at 11bps.
  • We also note Gatwick's £300m 37's are trading at Z+178/£102 & is a floor to our FV on the 40's. Its moved ~+6bps since mandate was announced yesterday.

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