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GBP/JPY Tops Y183, an Eight Year High

FOREX
  • Broad JPY weakness Tuesday is most clearly noted against GBP, pushing the GBP/JPY cross briefly above Y183.00 - the highest level for prices since 2015.
  • Rate dynamics remain the key driver, with markets continuing to price a strong likelihood of a peak BoE rate at 6.25% against the acutely low likelihood of a BoJ hike across the forecast horizon. Resistance in the cross is seen light into Y185.00, ahead of Y188.81 and 195.89, the 2015 high and highest since 2008.
  • ECB's Lagarde formally kicked off proceedings in Sintra, Portugal, with a somewhat hawkish speech, at which she stated that it's unlikely the ECB will be able to conclude that they have reached peak rates anytime soon.
  • Markets continue to price a July hike, but pricing drifts thereafter, signalling traders see slower tightening pace in H2 this year. EUR has held resilient across much of the morning, with the single currency ahead of all others in G10 - although generally respecting recent ranges.
  • Canadian CPI is the data highlight ahead of US durable goods orders for May and the latest new home sales report. US Consumer Confidence crosses for June, with markets expecting confidence to tick higher to 103.9
  • Sintra speakers later today include BoC's Kozicki and Norges Bank governor Ida Wolden Bache.
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